Daily Contextual Analysis & Plan | October 1, 2026
Thursday completed a full two-sided auction before rejecting lower value and rotating back toward the center of its double distribution.
ETH repaired unfinished business above
ETH extended through most of Wednesday’s distribution, reaching 7768 just beneath the open 7770.00 nVPOC. That advance completely reversed into the repeatedly tested 7705 area, leaving a visibly weak overnight low.
When sellers could not continue lower, volume accumulated across 7731–7747 and established ONVPOC near 7742.00.
Initiative selling tested lower value
RTH opened between weak overnight support and overhead value. Buyers failed to retest ONVPOC, allowing initiative sellers to remove the weak overnight low and use the stops beneath it to accelerate discovery through the September 18 low.
The auction developed time and volume in the lower distribution. Session VPOC migrated to 7690.00, where sustained trade tested whether lower prices could become accepted value. They could not. Buyers responded and rotated price back toward fair value, leaving 7710 as the low-volume seam between Thursday’s two distributions.
Upside: reclaiming the Siege Control Pivot
Acceptance above 7740.50 repairs the 7747.00 single print and restores the upper auction. The next references are the 7764.00 20-day VPOC, the 7770.00 nVPOC and the 7771.50 10-day VPOC.
Acceptance through that cluster can extend toward the balance highs at 7782.00–7786.25. Rejection above the Control Pivot returns the auction toward 7710 and 7690.00.
Downside: acceptance below the LVN seam
Acceptance below 7710.00 reopens the lower distribution. The first test is the 7690.00 session and monthly VPOC, followed by the 7675.00–7672.75 LBAF and balance-low zone.
Sustained trade through that area exposes the 7668.50 single print and 7658.00 composite HVN. Rejection from lower value would favor another rotation through the double distribution.
Auction condition
Daily balance is confirmed while weekly and monthly balance remain developing. The auction remains rotational across higher time frames; the next directional information comes from acceptance outside Thursday’s internal distribution boundaries.